The molecular-genetic examination conducted by the Russian Investigative Commission confirmed that the leader of Wagner, Evgeny Prigozhin, died in a plane crash in Russia on Wednesday. Now the question arises as to what will happen to Wagner.
Dr. Joana de Deus Pereira, Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, stated to BBC that Prigozhin's death will likely lead to a “certain reorganization” of the group.
However, she believes that the group's operations will continue much the same way under a different name.
“The organization will likely function under a different name in the future, but it has already proven its capacity for adaptation and transformation,” she said, adding:
“We must not only see Wagner as an individual, but as an ecosystem, like a Hydra with many heads and many different interests in Africa.”
Ruslan Trad, a security analyst at the Atlantic Council, agrees with her and believes that someone connected to the Russian military intelligence agency, GRU, could take over the mercenaries.
He notes that the main challenge for Russian President Vladimir Putin may be finding someone with deep enough pockets to finance the para-military operations without directly challenging his regime.
“I will try to find a new financier because Prigozhin was the main person with money there,” Trad said, adding that Wagner has a good commander but needs funding. “Maybe they will install someone from Putin's inner circle.”
Benoît Bringer, a journalist whose documentary “The Rise of Wagner” described the rise of the para-military group, told BBC that one of the top candidates is General Andrei Averjanov of GRU.
“It probably took Putin some time to organize the transfer of power and explain why he waited two months to get rid of Prigozhin,” Bringer believes.
Emily Ferris from the Royal United Services Institute also believes that Moscow has learned a lesson from the Prigozhin situation and that the new leader of Wagner will likely be someone personally chosen by the Kremlin.
Ferris also suggests that Wagner could split into two factions, with the remaining leaderless groups in Belarus disbanding and the other faction active abroad transforming into something that aligns with Russian policies.
